M.B. ROQUE: NEED A MILLION CUBANS IN THE STREETS

CONFIDENTIAL C O N F I D E N T I A L HAVANA 000252 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, CU SUBJECT: M.B. ROQUE: NEED A MILLION CUBANS IN THE STREETS Classified By: COM Michael E. Parmly; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1. (C) Martha Beatriz Roque (MBR), head of the Assembly to Promote Civil Society (APCS), told COM and Pol-Econ Counselor March 14 that she was withdrawing from her day-to-day running of the APCS for health reasons and also to focus on the bigger picture. Her objective for the next few months is to plan for how to mobilize a million Cubans to take to the streets to demand significant political and economic changes. She did not provide any specific target date, although she acknowledged Fidel Castro's funeral as one catalyst and the tenth anniversary of a seminal opposition document "The Nation Belongs to All" ("La Patria es de Todos") that she and three other dissidents authored, landing them all in prison. 2. (C) MBR said she was worn down from having to act as leader and also her own secretariat for the APCS, her last major event being the congress of independent libraries, that concluded at the end of February with a ceremony at our PAO residence. The recent release from prison of APCS Vice-President Rene Gomez Manzano allowed her more leeway; Gomez Manzano will now share the leadership with Felix Bonne Carcases, the APCS's other vice-president. MBR would still, inevitably, be reachable to the thousands of members of the opposition, particularly families of political prisoners, who turn to her for help. However, she would not continue the same pace of constituent services that she had delivered in the past. 3. (C) The big picture, said MBR, required time to reflect. She said she admired Oswaldo Paya for his ability to think and write and strategize. "We have reached a new level of maturity and need to set aside rivalries," she added. She commented that wherever she goes she is stopped by total strangers who say they recognize her and respect what she stands for. She believes that she has developed a network nationwide that, at the right moment, could very realistically put a million Cubans in the streets. The trick was to aim for the mobilization at the exact point when its impact would be the most transformational. 4. (C) Comment: We agree with MBR's main point that the current repertoire of oppositionist activities has reached a certain limit that, while still worthy and necessary, does not add up to a sufficiently combustible mix to bring about regime change. In our view, only she and Oswaldo Paya have the nationwide name recognition to mobilize anything close to a million Cubans. In this context it is encouraging to hear her speak favorably about Paya. PARMLY